Pandemic Update 5: It’s not science, it’s common sense

I started writing this article over two weeks ago.  Generally, I put a draft article aside and come back to it the next day to review and edit.  The problem is that each day when I came back to this article on the state of the pandemic in July 2021, the numbers had significantly changed for the worse.   I will dispense with the numbers that you can get from the daily news, and just remind you that new Covid-19 cases across the country and in Texas are where we were last fall before vaccines were available.  Travis County just went back to Stage 4 restrictions, one step below a shut down.  The pandemic is not over.

The majority of infections are now the Covid-19 delta variant, much more contagious, and apparently, more deadly.  About 74% of Covid-19 hospitalizations are in the population less than age 65, much different than before vaccination began.  Unvaccinated people are now putting everyone at risk, including vaccinated persons who are over age 65 or have chronic health conditions.  Over 75% of vaccinated persons who have died from Covid-19 infection are over age 65 – high risk by definition.  Two weeks ago, 99.5% of Covid-19 deaths were in the unvaccinated, this week it is 97%.  More vaccinated people are being hospitalized and are dying.  In fact, since vaccination began, over 1000 people who were completely vaccinated have become infected and have died.  That number is consistent with the 95% protection that vaccination provides against death. That number is also much less than the 608,000 unvaccinated persons who have died since the pandemic began, and much less than the 200,000 unvaccinated who have died since the first vaccinations were completed this January.  But it is another sad measure of preventable deaths.  Based on the rate of vaccination we had in April, we could have ended the pandemic by now.  But it is not over.

This week we are finally seeing key Republican figures and Fox News anchors saying that they have been vaccinated and recommending vaccination to the public.  They are belatedly coming around because they feel personally at risk.  How many times do we have to restate the primary reason for vaccination?   You should get vaccinated to prevent the spread of the virus and protect the lives of others.  Personal protection is secondary.

So, what do we do now?  You can read my previous posts to reflect on what we should have done to this point.  We need to implement prudent public health restrictions consistent with the current high rate of community transmission.  Here I want to make another recommendation.  In most of the nation, children should not be going back to school in August and September.  

In March scientists from MIT and Texas A&M published an article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences describing theoretical models of the airborne transmission of the coronavirus and creating a tool for evaluating the risk of infection in indoor environments.  One of the key findings was that social distancing does not work indoors.  The risk of infection is dependent on the number of people in a room, the time spent in the room, the size of the room, ventilation and – whether people in the room are wearing masks (yes, masks are effective).  As for ventilation, filtration systems don’t really help.  Opening windows is best.  Plastic barriers do not help.  Using the tool described in this article, putting children in a standard classroom all day is high risk, especially at full capacity.  (See the article here:  https://www.pnas.org/content/118/17/e2018995118)

That is the science.  But we apparently have a lot of people in this country who refuse to believe science.  They will instead believe they can be magnetized by vaccination so that keys will stick to their skin (keys are generally made of brass or nickel – and are not magnetic in the first place), or they will be implanted with 5G chips (which won’t communicate with a cell tower without a transmitter).  In the meantime, children are getting sick and dying and will continue to spread the virus.  The only way to protect children until a vaccine is available for them is for adults to get vaccinated and kids to stay home.

So, forget the science – use your common sense.  Almost everyone knows someone who has died from Covid-19 infection.  Do you know anyone who has died as a result of Covid-19 vaccination?   The public benefit of vaccination clearly exceeds any personal risk.  If you want advice on the vaccine, why don’t you ask your doctor instead of watching Tucker Carlson? Everyone knows their kids bring home infections from school every year.  Why would Covid-19 be any different?  You can probably teach a child to wear a face mask and wash their hands, but you know you will have a harder time keeping them from picking their nose. 

It is time for public health officials to start using common sense.  While you may not be able to vaccinate someone against their will, you can certainly impose restrictions on their activities to protect the public.  Instead, private entities are having to make the rules.  Cruise ships just confirmed their right in court to restrict unvaccinated guests.  The Southeastern Conference just made it clear that they recommend vaccination by telling football teams that they will forfeit games if they have Covid-19 outbreaks.  The National Football League just suggested the same.  Healthcare providers, airlines and other employers are now requiring that their employees be vaccinated.  

Public health officials should have authority at the local level to impose restrictions to protect the public.   That is common sense.  Unvaccinated persons should not be allowed to use public transportation, attend public gatherings, attend secondary schools or college, work in a healthcare setting with direct patient contact, or send their unvaccinated children to school.  Basically, unvaccinated persons should not be in public other than for essential activities, although unfortunately, that is not enforceable.  It is common sense.  And what about wearing a face mask?  The science clearly shows that it is effective in preventing airborne virus transmission. The CDC says that only unvaccinated people need to wear face masks.  That makes no sense, as you cannot tell a vaccinated person from an unvaccinated person, and we also know that even vaccinated people can contract new variants of Covid-19.  

The American Academy of Pediatrics just issued a recommendation that all children should wear face masks in school. Not enough. National Nurses United, the largest union of nurses just wrote a letter urging the CDC to reinstate universal mask guidance.  Still not enough. You don’t have to be a doctor or a nurse to know what to do– it just makes common sense. We will not begin vaccinating children under age 12 until at least this fall, and vaccination for children will probably not be completed until next year. Let’s keep them safe until then. Whether you believe in science or common sense – get vaccinated.  Wear a mask.  Keep your kids at home. Let’s end the pandemic.