On Monday, July 15, Georgia US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene delivered one of the first speeches at the Republican National Convention. It was filled with false and misleading statements – not the least of which was that Donald Trump is “the founding father of the America First Movement”
Donald Trump’s America First Movement is a reboot of a far right political party founded in 1943 by pro-Nazi fascists. The original members of the pre-war America First Committee included Robert Wood (CEO of Sears, Roebuck and Co.), Henry Ford, and Charles Lindbergh. All were raging anti-semites who used their celebrity to defend Adolph Hitler and keep the US from joining Great Britain in the war in Europe. Wood, Ford and Lindbergh left the organization after Pearl Harbor and the Committee disbanded. But the pro-Nazi fascists at the heart of the original America First movement quietly continued to pursue the end of democracy in the US.
In 1942, thirty Nazi sympathizers, mostly US citizens, were charged with sedition under the Smith Act of 1940. The investigation, indictments, and ultimately the trial were undermined by more than two dozen members of Congress who were implicated in promoting Nazi propaganda that came directly from Germany. The first prosecutor was fired, and the judge assigned to the case died while the trial was hijacked by multiple defense lawyers. A mistrial was declared. The second prosecutor assigned to re-prosecute the case was also fired, after US Senators pressured their old colleague, President Harry Truman.
Disciples of Christ Minister, white supremacist, anti-Semite and Christian nationalist, Gerald L. K. Smith founded the America First Party in 1943. He attempted to get Charles Lindbergh to be the party Presidential nominee but failed. After taking the nomination for himself, Smith attempted to recruit Republican Governor of Ohio, John Bricker, to be his running mate. This also failed and Bricker was replaced with Harry Romer, a protégée of Father Charles Coughlin, an antisemitc, pro-Nazi Catholic priest.
Franklin Delano Roosevelt won re-election by an electoral landslide in 1944, and the America First Party faded. But an America First Party candidate has been on the ballot for President multiple times since 1944. The last time was in 1996, when Ralph Forbes, previously a campaign manager for David Duke and an officer of the American Nazi Party, was the nominee.
Allies of the original America First movement were involved with Senator Joseph McCarthy during his crusade against communism in the early 1950s. Pro-Nazi fascists had used opposition to communism as a reason to overturn the war crime convictions of Nazis in the late 1940s. They blamed Jewish lawyers for the “unfair” convictions and equated Jews with communists. And so, most of those named as communists by McCarthy were Jewish. There is evidence suggesting that McCarthy’s original list of 205 communists working in the State Department in 1950 was completely fabricated.
So it turns out that the America First movement has its roots in white supremacy, antisemitism and Christian nationalism. Does Donald Trump know the history? Probably not. But shouldn’t one of his advisors have told him? Or do they know the truth?
In October of 2020 I reported on data from CrimeViewer, the on-line tool that allows you to view crime reports from the Austin Police Department. I reviewed the CrimeViewer data again in April of 2021. In that report, crime had not increased significantly from October 2020, but it certainly did not go down.
I just ran reports for the 4th Quarter of 2021, including October, November and December. I had to actually run monthly reports because CrimeViewer won’t list more than 1000 crimes in a category on a single query. And several crime categories exceeded 1000 reports for the three-month period. I also compared crime statistics for three City Council Districts: District 9 the downtown area, District 4 north and east of I35 in the St. Johns area, and District 10 which is west Austin.
As before, crime in Districts 9 and 4 was almost 3 times greater than in District 10, and crime rates were higher in those two districts across all categories. Property crimes including burglary (mostly of vehicles) and theft were highest in District 9. Violent crimes, including murder, aggravated assault, and robbery were more common in District 4. Personal crimes including assault, fighting and harassment made up the largest category of crimes in District 9, especially when combining Part 1 (generally felony) and Part 2 (generally misdemeanor) crimes. Second most common were drug and alcohol related crimes (mostly Part 2). The overall rate of Part 1 and Part 2 crimes did not change in District 9 from 2020 to 2021. Family disturbance was second to assault, fighting and harassment in District 4. Crime rates in District 4 were up 6% for Part 1 crimes and 17% for Part 2 crimes compared to 2020.
Personal crime and property crime spilled over into District 10 in 2021. Overall crime rates increased 16% from 2020. Robbery (while infrequent) increased by 67% and aggravated assault increased 53%. Burglary increased by 57%. Auto theft increased 44%. The rate of property theft was not significantly changed.
The City Council’s plan to “reimagine public safety”, whatever that means, is clearly not working. I encourage everyone in Austin to engage your City Council Member and demand relief from crime in Austin. I also encourage you to subscribe to SpotCrime, an app that will allow you to follow crime in your neighborhood. Download the app here:
Also, use the CrimeViewer application to view APD crime reports for your neighborhood. I recommend the Crime Search tool in the toolbar to refine your search.
A year ago, I wrote an article suggesting that we should replace politicians who are not accomplishing legislation in support of their constituents. The most recent polling data from November 2021 puts the Congressional approval rating at 20%. Congress achieved an approval rating in March 2021 of 36%, which just happened to coincide with passage of the American Rescue Plan that included a $1400 check to most Americans. There cannot be a more blatant example of buying votes.
Otherwise, the Congressional approval rating is chronically in the 20 percent range. This immediately begs the question: Why do we keep sending the same politicians back to Washington? The same thing can be argued for politicians at the state and local level. How do 90% of incumbents get re-elected, even when they are accomplishing almost nothing that benefits their constituents?
I also wrote an article last year on Money in Politics. It is not just a coincidence that the increased money in politics in the last 40 years is associated with increasing dysfunction in the legislative process. Most money comes from wealthy individuals and corporations who get unrestricted access to politicians that results in legislation supporting their special interests. Even more important for these wealthy donors, they prevent legislation that would have a negative impact on their special interests. Don’t you wonder why we have all these complaints about the social media and internet service providers, and yet Congress does nothing? What about the financial industry, the fossil fuel industry, and gun manufacturers?
At the same time, politicians know that in our democracy, they still have to win elections where every vote counts the same. Today’s political campaigns are media driven and very expensive. The big money donations are not enough, and politicians do have to be careful that they are not entirely funded by wealthy donors. Some even try to say that they do not accept big money donations, but they all do. Big money donations are now often laundered through Political Action Committees and other shell organizations.
Politicians at the federal, state, and now even the local level, found that they can not only communicate campaign messages through media, but they can also use media to solicit individual donations. Then they discovered that campaign messages communicating positions on political issues are not very interesting and don’t drive donations. In addition, boring political positions do not generate shares and views on social media. Politicians have learned that posting extremist positions and outrageous conspiracy theories drive media traffic and then donations.
I was struggling to decide what would be the best example of an outrageous, extremist campaign message to mention as an example. Then I happened to watch the Senate Health Committee hearing on the COVID-19 pandemic, and the exchange between Senator Rand Paul and Dr. Anthony Fauci. Senator Paul was repeating a charge he has made for the past year – that Dr. Fauci and and Dr. Francis Collins, previous Director of the National Institutes of Health, conspired to discredit other doctors who took the position that the COVID-19 virus was manufactured in a Chinese laboratory. Does it really matter where the virus actually originated? No. Does it matter that Dr. Fauci has denied the accusation for a year? No. Does it matter that there is no evidence that the COVID-19 virus originated in a Chinese laboratory? No. Does it matter that Dr. Fauci has consistently tried to communicate apolitical scientific information through his position as advisor to the President? No.
What matters is that in June of 2021 Rand Paul tweeted that Dr. Fauci should be fired. The Tweet included a prominent link to contribute to the Rand Paul campaign. Since then, #FireFauci has gone viral and is used by Rand Paul on his campaign website, again, with a prominent DONATE link. Other than calling for Dr. Fauci to be fired, the allegations of a conspiracy to cover up a Chinese laboratory link to the origin of the COVID-19 virus don’t create a legislative solution to the pandemic. Which, one would think, would be the purpose of a Senate hearing. On the other hand, the allegations have resulted in death threats to Dr. Fauci and his family, another effect of message amplification through social media.
So, what do we do as voters? I also wrote last year that if we are not happy with the job our elected officials are doing, we need to vote them out of office. Voters have the ability to impose term limits simply by voting against incumbents. I personally will have a very difficult time voting for Republican candidates, as the Republican party has become so extremist and dysfunctional. At the same time, the political strategy to use extremist positions to generate campaign donations and influence votes is also found in the Democratic party. If you feel the need to support the Republican party, you have to participate in the primary elections. And you will have to take the time to find out about the candidates in the primary election. I don’t think it is helpful to elect representatives like Lauren Boebert and Marjorie Taylor Greene. Again, measure what they have actually accomplished on behalf of their constituents, not what extremist rhetoric they have communicated.
The Texas 2022 primary election day is March 1. Early voting begins February 14. And since new Texas law makes it more difficult to vote by mail, take advantage of in-person early voting.
On December 14, 2021, the United States surpassed 800,000 COVID-19 deaths since the pandemic began. On July 30, there were about 612,000 deaths. That means that since the time that all adults could have been vaccinated in the U.S. there have been close to 200,000 more deaths. Almost all of the deaths since July have been adults and 90% were in the unvaccinated population. Conservatively, 80% or about 150,000 deaths, were avoidable. And yet people still refuse to get vaccinated.
I will not review all of the excuses that people give for not getting vaccinated. It doesn’t matter. Clearly the benefit of vaccination outweighs any of the risks that people voice concerns about. And because vaccination primarily prevents the spread of infection to others, vulnerable populations have been put at risk by the unvaccinated. This has resulted in many of the deaths from breakthrough infections in vaccinated people.
Because of the continuing pandemic, some say the vaccine doesn’t work. You can hear this statement almost every night on Fox News. It is a false statement. The chart from the CDC above is just one of many reports that demonstrates the benefit of vaccination (and boosters).
On November 8, 2021, the Texas Department of State Health Services published a report of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by Vaccination Status. This report showed that 85% of hospitalizations and 85% of deaths from COVID-19 in Texas since January 1, 2021 have been in the unvaccinated population. Other Key Findings from the report:
From September 4 through October 1, 2021:
Unvaccinated people were 13 times more likely to become infected with COVID-19 than fully vaccinated people.
Unvaccinated people were 20 times more likely to experience COVID-19-associated death than fully vaccinated people.
Vaccination had a strong protective effect on infections and deaths among people of all ages. The protective impact on infections was consistent across adult age groups and even greater in people ages 12 to 17 years. The protective impact on COVID-19 deaths, which was high for all age groups, varied more widely. In the September time frame, unvaccinated people in their 40s were 55 times more likely to die from COVID-19 compared with fully vaccinated people of the same age. Unvaccinated people aged 75 years and older were 12 times more likely to die than their vaccinated counterparts.
Overall, regardless of vaccination status, people in Texas were four to five times more likely to become infected with COVID-19 or suffer a COVID-19-associated death while the Delta variant was prevalent in Texas (August 2021) compared with a period before the Delta variant became prevalent (April 2021).
People have argued that vaccination is causing the new variants that are taking over the pandemic. There is no evidence that any mutations have been selected through vaccination. New variants have emerged in populations that were not vaccinated (including the delta variant), or where vaccination rates were low (omicron variant). The fact is that the unvaccinated population is mostly responsible for the development of new variants. Viruses mutate during replication, and viruses have the chance to replicate much more often in the unvaccinated population. First, viruses have more vulnerable new hosts in the unvaccinated population. Then viruses can replicate many more times in an unvaccinated person. Even with the delta variant, where viral loads are similar between vaccinated and unvaccinated populations, the period of infection (and replication) is reduced from 7-10 days in an unvaccinated person to about 3 days in a vaccinated person. Take Governor Abbott and his breakthrough infection as an example. He had mild symptoms and tested negative after 3 days. A negative test generally signals you are no longer contagious. An unvaccinated person provides the virus with millions more chances to mutate.
Clearly, vaccination is the key to reducing illness and death from COVID-19 and ending the pandemic. So why do we need mandates?
Misinformation and false information are prevalent on the internet and in other media. It is produced by conservative politicians who are promoting extremist views to drive political contributions and public support for their re-election to office, and by a handful of malfeasant physicians and scientists. Social media allows this misinformation and false information to be multiplied like the virus itself. It seems that mandates and calls for mandates only feed these false narratives.
But even without false narratives magnified by the internet, mandates are generally required to achieve significant compliance with public health guidelines. I would challenge any parent who is not a pediatrician to name the immunizations required for their child to start kindergarten. Mandated vaccines are listed for the parent by the school district, and the parent can check the list of mandates against their child’s vaccine record. Very often, parents have to go to the pediatrician and get vaccinations updated right before school starts. Without the mandate, they would not know what vaccines their child should have.
The other reason for mandates is that even if people have the information they need about vaccination, getting vaccinated requires a commitment to action. After overcoming misinformation and false information, as well as valid concerns about adverse events, without mandates many people would still not get vaccinated. While the vaccine is free, there is the cost of time (like taking off work), plus transportation issues, vaccine availability, and just plain laziness that get in the way. Maybe fear of needles?
So, mandates are necessary to provide people with information that they need about vaccination and to ensure that they make the commitment to get vaccinated. In a public health emergency, it is a necessary tool. For politicians, judges, and others with secondary motives to oppose a COVID-19 vaccine mandate is to deny about a hundred years of public health experience with vaccine mandates.
Yes, you have the right to refuse vaccination. But you do not have the right to remain unvaccinated and expose others to the risk of infection in public settings. This includes any job where there is interaction with the public, workplaces where individuals are in close contact, public transportation, public events, and public places where people may be exposed like restaurants, bars, gyms – and yes, even going to church. To see a listing of high-risk activities, see Pandemic Update 6 (https://waterloo-austin.com/2021/08/12/pandemic-update-6-its-time-for-accountability/).
It is past time to enforce mandates for COVID-19 vaccination. If you are not vaccinated, do the right thing and get vaccinated. If you are vaccinated and frustrated that this pandemic is continuing, call on your elected officials to stop opposing vaccine mandates and start enforcing them.
I originally wrote this post back in December of 2021. Of course, almost six months later nothing has changed. Yesterday, a young man who was 18 years and 9 days old murdered 19 elementary school children and two teachers using an assault rifle. He bought two assault rifles, high capacity magazines and 375 rounds of ammunition within days of his eighteenth birthday. I feel the need to update the statistics, but the public health recommendations for meaningful legislation remain the same.
On December 4th, 2021, barely five days after a 15 year old murdered four of his high school classmates and wounded six others and a teacher, Congressional Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky Tweeted a holiday picture of his family. Everyone was holding their own semi-automatic or automatic weapon, and the caption read “Merry Christmas! ps Santa Please Bring Ammo.” The weapons appear to include an AR-15 rifle, an M60 machine gun, and a Thompson submachine gun. Amazingly, the machine gun and submachine gun are still legal to own as long as they were manufactured before 1986, or you have a Federal Firearms License. The post is not interesting, it is not funny, it is not educational and it is not representative of the Christian holiday spirit. It is a representation of the toxic culture of guns in the U.S.
According to the Gun Violence Archive (www.gunviolencearchive.org) there have already been 213 mass shootings in 2022. There were 611 in 2020, and then 696 in 2021. So far there have been over 17,000 deaths due to gun violence in 2022. The problem of gun violence is clearly getting worse. Including the murders in Uvalde, Texas yesterday, there have been 27 incidents of gun violence in schools so far in 2022.
I watched some programming on Fox News last night to see how they reported the Uvalde school shooting. They stayed away from recommending any changes in gun laws that would protect school children. Instead, they discussed “hardening schools” and potentially arming teachers. The problem is, that as of today, we know that there were armed School Resource Officers on the campus of the Robb Elementary school, and yet they were unable to stop the shooter. It took almost an hour for officers to finally end the carnage. Uvalde is a town of just 15,000 people and about 4100 school children, and they already spend almost $500,000 per year on school security. By law passed by the Texas legislature in 2019, they are required to provide emergency training to all school personnel (including substitute teachers), and have an emergency plan for this kind of event. They are even required to have “bleeding control” stations with supplies such as tourniquets. It was easy to predict that these things would be a waste of money.
The American Medical Association and almost every other health policy organization in the United States have called gun violence a public health crisis, and have called for legislative action year after year. These organizations have made common-sense recommendations that could be easily implemented. Here is what needs to be done:
Prohibit state pre-emption laws that prevent local governments from creating firearms ordinances. Local authorities need to be able to restrict possession of a firearm in certain areas. Local ordinances would be preferable to state-wide bans that might not apply to some communities.
Ban private ownership of assault-style rifles, and automatic weapons. These are weapons of war designed to kill human beings and there is no reason for private citizens to own them. These weapons can be transferred to gun ranges or training facilities who are licensed to own automatic weapons. Alternatively, the federal government can buy the weapons and destroy them.
Ban private ownership of high-capacity magazines holding more than 10 rounds of ammunition. Again, these can be transferred to licensed gun ranges and training facilities or bought back and destroyed.
Require a background check on the sale of all handguns. Handguns are also only useful for killing human beings and a background check absolutely should be required, regardless of where they are sold or by whom.
Require registration of all handguns. This is the only way to get control of all of the handguns that are already in circulation. Stiff penalties for illegal possession are the best way to get illegal guns off the streets and out of the hands of violent criminals.
Raise the legal age to purchase a firearm, and to possess or use a handgun to 21 years in every state. The legal age to possess or drink alcohol is 21. This is not because of any physiologic effect of alcohol on a young person. It is because people under the age of 21 have not demonstrated the maturity to drink responsibly. Why would this not apply to the purchase of a firearm?
Make it illegal for a person under the age of 21 to use an assault-style rifle, automatic weapon or handgun at a gun range. There is no reason for someone under age 21 to use a weapon at a firing range that they cannot legally possess. There have been fatal accidents when children have used firearms at gun ranges (https://www.npr.org/2014/08/28/344036686/shooting-range-accident-draws-focus-on-children-handling-guns). This is also necessary to change the gun culture in the U.S.
Raise the cost of a Federal Firearms License to $3000 – $5000 and increase penalties for non-compliance. 60% of FFL holders do not operate a gun store. One third do not sell a firearm to anyone else and another third fail record-keeping requirements. Most people get an FFL so they can buy automatic weapons or get discounts on firearm purchases. Currently the fee for an FFL is a ridiculous $200 for the first three years and $90 for each three-year renewal.
Allow only gun ranges and training facilities to obtain a Class 3 Special Occupational Taxpayer license that allows ownership and possession of assault rifles and automatic weapons. Again, this should be the only place that these weapons are stored and used.
There are the additional recommendations made by the American Medical Association in their policy statement in 2018:
Advocate for schools as gun-free zones
Expand domestic violence restraining orders to include dating partners
Remove firearms from high-risk individuals
End concealed carry reciprocity across state lines
Create gun buy-back programs to reduce the number of circulating firearms
These common-sense recommendations allow hunters over 21 to buy and possess shotguns and hunting rifles and to exchange these weapons without restrictions. Those who prefer a handgun for personal protection can own one after a background check and registration. Subsequent sale of a handgun would require a background check of the new owner and transfer of registration, just like a trailer title. This will allow authorities to identify and impound un-registered handguns, and appropriate penalties will be a deterrent to criminal possession.
For those who want to argue that any of these recommendations infringe on their 2nd amendment rights, the 9th Amendment states “The enumeration in the Constitution of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people”. This means that the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness cannot be denied or disparaged by the 2nd amendment. I would say that the victims in Oxford, Michigan and now in Uvalde, Texas were denied these rights by someone who should not have possessed a firearm. Without gun regulation, you cannot prevent the possession of a firearm by a child, an ignorant adult, someone with mental illness, or a criminal. The history of gun violence in America has clearly proved this.
It is time to demand action from our elected representatives. Those who refuse to act should be removed from office at the ballot box. Ask your representatives in Congress where they stand on these common-sense recommendations, and vote accordingly. I also challenge everyone who reads this post to share it with others and discuss these public health recommendations with family and friends.
On March 19, 2020 Governor Greg Abbott issued an executive order closing bars, restaurants and schools in Texas, the first response to documented community spread of the Covid-19 virus in Texas. On March 22, 2020, Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, Collin and Travis Counties issued stay at home orders, effectively shutting down economic activity in the largest cities. On that date there were 92 new Covid-19 cases in the state of Texas. On August 11, 2021 there were 21,854 new cases. And everything is open.
In March of last year, the shutdown was intended to stop community spread of the novel coronavirus and avoid a full-scale pandemic in the United States. At first, the shutdown strategy appeared to work, but because it was limited, it failed. The subsequent failure of government at all levels to manage the pandemic has been stunning. I have written about what should be done the next time (and there will be a next time), which is also a description of what should have been, and for the most part was not, done this time. Basically, the response to the pandemic should have been managed by local health authorities, using public health measures, and not by the Governor at the state level. The emergency management statute in the Texas Government Code was not intended for response to public health emergencies, and the Governor has used his powers under the statute to obstruct local public health officials rather than to support them.
The recession caused by the economic shutdown in early 2020 was technically only two months, but economic growth has only been possible during the past year because it is based on the baseline trough of the recession in April 2020. Texas political leadership (again with the buck stopping at the Governor) has been more interested in protecting the economy than in protecting the public health. In addition, conservative leaders at all levels of government have opposed rational public health recommendations for political purposes. Rallying populations with the call for personal liberty and responsibility, conservative leaders have opposed vaccination, restrictions on gatherings (like church), travel restrictions, and face mask mandates. The result has been a prolonged pandemic, with multiple surges in cases, hospitalizations and deaths. The sad fact is that most of the infections, hospitalizations and deaths for the past couple of months were preventable. And yet we are nowhere near the end.
So, what do we do now? Incredibly, we currently have only voluntary guidelines and no restrictions. Restaurants and bars are fully open, public gatherings are not prohibited, travel is not restricted, schools and universities are open, and face mask mandates are sporadic. The almost vertical rise in new cases is clear evidence that voluntary guidelines are not working and public health restrictions are necessary.
In July of 2020, the Texas Medical Association COVID-19 Task Force and Committee on Infectious Diseases produced a chart that ranks activities and the associated risk for Covid-19 infection. This chart defines 5 levels of risk from lowest (opening the mail) to highest (going to a bar). The chart is pictured at the top of this post. With the objective of minimizing community transmission of the Covid-19 virus, and using our primary tool – vaccination, it is fairly simple to describe a public health plan of action. Here is what I recommend for any county where community transmission is considered substantial or high (as defined by the CDC).
Activities that are considered high risk (8 in the chart) should be prohibited until community transmission falls to moderate levels (as defined by the CDC). High risk activities include:
Eating at a buffet
Working out in a gym
Going to an amusement park
Going to a movie theater
Attending a music concert
Going to a sports stadium
Attending a religious service with 500+ worshipers
Going to a bar
When community transmission falls to a moderate level, vaccinated persons only should be allowed to participate in high-risk activities. Non-vaccinated persons should be prohibited from these activities until community transmission is at a low level. Should transmission levels rise again, restrictions should be reinstituted immediately.
While community transmission is at a substantial or high level in a community, activities that are considered moderate-risk (5-7) should be restricted to vaccinated persons only. This list includes (see full list in chart which includes personal interactions):
Playing contact sports
Attending weddings and funerals
Attending school, camp and daycare
Eating inside a restaurant
Going to a salon or barber shop
Working in an office building
Shopping in a mall
Traveling by plane
As Covid-19 infection has clearly been spread by domestic and international travel, I believe that all travel by mass transit should be included on this list as moderate-risk. That means only fully vaccinated individuals should travel by bus, train or commercial airline until community transmission is low. I have previously written that it is not safe for children to be in school with the current high levels of community transmission. This is because children under the age of 12 can’t be vaccinated yet, and we do not have full vaccination for eligible students, teachers and staff. For daycare, full vaccination of caregivers may make it safe for young unvaccinated children to attend daycare. When community transmission is at a low level, non-vaccinated individuals can participate in moderate-risk activities.
For low-risk activities (1-4), practical social distancing, good hygiene and face mask use indoors should allow both vaccinated and unvaccinated persons to continue these activities during substantial or high community transmission (see full list in chart):
Getting restaurant takeout
Exercising outdoors
Grocery shopping
Traveling independently and staying in a hotel
Eating outdoors at a restaurant
Recommendations for testing following exposure or symptoms, isolation pending test results, and quarantine after positive tests should be continued as recommended for vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. Contact tracing should also be pursued, particularly in school and workplace settings.
Vaccination is the primary tool that we have to end this pandemic. Those who prefer not to be vaccinated should face restrictions on activities until community transmission is low. This may provide an incentive for those who are vaccine-hesitant. Face mask use, while having limited benefit, is easy and safe and should be included in recommendations. Since we don’t know who has been vaccinated and who has not, face mask use indoors in public spaces should be universal while community transmission is substantial or high.
It is time for public health officials to stand up and protect the public. We can put this pandemic behind us if we adopt reasonable public health measures.
I started writing this article over two weeks ago. Generally, I put a draft article aside and come back to it the next day to review and edit. The problem is that each day when I came back to this article on the state of the pandemic in July 2021, the numbers had significantly changed for the worse. I will dispense with the numbers that you can get from the daily news, and just remind you that new Covid-19 cases across the country and in Texas are where we were last fall before vaccines were available. Travis County just went back to Stage 4 restrictions, one step below a shut down. The pandemic is not over.
The majority of infections are now the Covid-19 delta variant, much more contagious, and apparently, more deadly. About 74% of Covid-19 hospitalizations are in the population less than age 65, much different than before vaccination began. Unvaccinated people are now putting everyone at risk, including vaccinated persons who are over age 65 or have chronic health conditions. Over 75% of vaccinated persons who have died from Covid-19 infection are over age 65 – high risk by definition. Two weeks ago, 99.5% of Covid-19 deaths were in the unvaccinated, this week it is 97%. More vaccinated people are being hospitalized and are dying. In fact, since vaccination began, over 1000 people who were completely vaccinated have become infected and have died. That number is consistent with the 95% protection that vaccination provides against death. That number is also much less than the 608,000 unvaccinated persons who have died since the pandemic began, and much less than the 200,000 unvaccinated who have died since the first vaccinations were completed this January. But it is another sad measure of preventable deaths. Based on the rate of vaccination we had in April, we could have ended the pandemic by now. But it is not over.
This week we are finally seeing key Republican figures and Fox News anchors saying that they have been vaccinated and recommending vaccination to the public. They are belatedly coming around because they feel personally at risk. How many times do we have to restate the primary reason for vaccination? You should get vaccinated to prevent the spread of the virus and protect the lives of others. Personal protection is secondary.
So, what do we do now? You can read my previous posts to reflect on what we should have done to this point. We need to implement prudent public health restrictions consistent with the current high rate of community transmission. Here I want to make another recommendation. In most of the nation, children should not be going back to school in August and September.
In March scientists from MIT and Texas A&M published an article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences describing theoretical models of the airborne transmission of the coronavirus and creating a tool for evaluating the risk of infection in indoor environments. One of the key findings was that social distancing does not work indoors. The risk of infection is dependent on the number of people in a room, the time spent in the room, the size of the room, ventilation and – whether people in the room are wearing masks (yes, masks are effective). As for ventilation, filtration systems don’t really help. Opening windows is best. Plastic barriers do not help. Using the tool described in this article, putting children in a standard classroom all day is high risk, especially at full capacity. (See the article here: https://www.pnas.org/content/118/17/e2018995118)
That is the science. But we apparently have a lot of people in this country who refuse to believe science. They will instead believe they can be magnetized by vaccination so that keys will stick to their skin (keys are generally made of brass or nickel – and are not magnetic in the first place), or they will be implanted with 5G chips (which won’t communicate with a cell tower without a transmitter). In the meantime, children are getting sick and dying and will continue to spread the virus. The only way to protect children until a vaccine is available for them is for adults to get vaccinated and kids to stay home.
So, forget the science – use your common sense. Almost everyone knows someone who has died from Covid-19 infection. Do you know anyone who has died as a result of Covid-19 vaccination? The public benefit of vaccination clearly exceeds any personal risk. If you want advice on the vaccine, why don’t you ask your doctor instead of watching Tucker Carlson? Everyone knows their kids bring home infections from school every year. Why would Covid-19 be any different? You can probably teach a child to wear a face mask and wash their hands, but you know you will have a harder time keeping them from picking their nose.
It is time for public health officials to start using common sense. While you may not be able to vaccinate someone against their will, you can certainly impose restrictions on their activities to protect the public. Instead, private entities are having to make the rules. Cruise ships just confirmed their right in court to restrict unvaccinated guests. The Southeastern Conference just made it clear that they recommend vaccination by telling football teams that they will forfeit games if they have Covid-19 outbreaks. The National Football League just suggested the same. Healthcare providers, airlines and other employers are now requiring that their employees be vaccinated.
Public health officials should have authority at the local level to impose restrictions to protect the public. That is common sense. Unvaccinated persons should not be allowed to use public transportation, attend public gatherings, attend secondary schools or college, work in a healthcare setting with direct patient contact, or send their unvaccinated children to school. Basically, unvaccinated persons should not be in public other than for essential activities, although unfortunately, that is not enforceable. It is common sense. And what about wearing a face mask? The science clearly shows that it is effective in preventing airborne virus transmission. The CDC says that only unvaccinated people need to wear face masks. That makes no sense, as you cannot tell a vaccinated person from an unvaccinated person, and we also know that even vaccinated people can contract new variants of Covid-19.
The American Academy of Pediatrics just issued a recommendation that all children should wear face masks in school. Not enough. National Nurses United, the largest union of nurses just wrote a letter urging the CDC to reinstate universal mask guidance. Still not enough. You don’t have to be a doctor or a nurse to know what to do– it just makes common sense. We will not begin vaccinating children under age 12 until at least this fall, and vaccination for children will probably not be completed until next year. Let’s keep them safe until then. Whether you believe in science or common sense – get vaccinated. Wear a mask. Keep your kids at home. Let’s end the pandemic.
In October of 2020 I reported on data from CrimeViewer, the on-line tool that allows you to view crime reports from the Austin Police Department. I decided to do a review of the data 6 months later, for the month of April 2021. During that time, we had an increase in at least the visibility of the homeless population downtown, and in other areas of Austin. It has also been clear from news reports that violent crime is increasing in Austin. Here is the summary, and I have provided the summary data below. Contact me if you would like to see the Excel spreadsheets.
For the report in October, I actually analyzed 32 days of data from October 9 to November 9, 2020, inclusive, in Council Districts 9, 4 and 10. District 9 is the east side of downtown Austin, from just south of the river to 51st street, and mostly west of the interstate. District 4 is north of District 9 and includes the St. John’s neighborhood, and District 10 is west Austin north of Lake Austin Blvd., including the Tarrytown, Northwest Hills, Great Hills and Jollyville neighborhoods.
For the April 2021 report, I analyzed April 1-30, 30 days inclusive, for the same districts. Keeping the number of days in each report in mind, the overall daily crime rate is almost exactly the same as the October report in each district. Part 1 Crimes (more serious crimes reported to the FBI) decreased somewhat, but Part 2 Crimes increased by 15% in the downtown area, 7% in District 4, and 31% in District 10. Most Part 2 crimes in District 9 were drug or alcohol related, followed by assault/fighting/harassment and criminal mischief. 71% of Part 1 Crimes in District 9 were property crimes, many involving vehicle break-in or theft.
Drug and alcohol related offenses in April, including DWI/DUI were almost 4 times higher in the downtown area than in northeast Austin, and 40 times higher than west Austin. Arrests for assault, fighting and harassment were 20 times more frequent, and criminal mischief was almost 20 times more frequent in downtown Austin than in west Austin. I challenge anyone to argue that the increasing presence of the homeless population in downtown Austin is not a significant contributor to the downtown crime rate. And once again I ask: Why should those of us living in downtown Austin be subjected to a much higher crime rate than the people living in West Austin? It is time to clean up downtown Austin and put a stop to crime committed by the homeless population. We need no tolerance drug zones for the entertainment districts (meaning you go to jail for any drug offense). We need increased enforcement of alcohol and drug intoxication offenses, and we need a curfew after 2 AM in the entertainment districts. I welcome other ideas for decreasing crime in downtown, and anywhere else for that matter.
I encourage everyone in Austin to engage your City Council Member and demand relief from crime in Austin. I also encourage you to subscribe to SpotCrime, an app that will allow you to follow crime in your neighborhood. Download the app here:
Also, use the CrimeViewer application to view APD crime reports for your neighborhood. I recommend the Crime Search tool in the toolbar to refine your search.
This is how the NRA drives membership. The letter inside from Wayne LaPierre was just as outrageous
As of May 31, there were 315 mass shootings in the US in 2021 (based on 4 people killed or wounded during an incident). There were over 600 mass shootings in 2020. The Center for Disease Control reported that 39,707 people died by firearms in 2019, 23,941 by suicide and 14,414 by homicide. The rate of death in the US related to firearms is higher than in any other industrialized country, and almost 100 times higher than in the United Kingdom. If deaths from firearms are about equal to deaths from breast cancer every year, why is gun violence not a public health priority?
Actually, the American Medical Association has called for gun safety legislation for over 20 years and in 2016 called gun violence a “public health crisis”. The American College of Surgeons (including the trauma surgeons who care for gun-shot wounds) advocated for gun safety legislation in their Statement on Firearm Injuries in 1991, and updated the call for legislation in 2000 and again in 2013. The American Academy of Family Physicians joined the American Academy of Pediatrics, American College of Physicians, American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, and the American Psychiatric Association in a call to action in 2018. Even the Center for Disease Control has recommended a public health approach to dealing with gun violence, and the CDC is prohibited by federal law from advocating for gun control.
Unbelievably, a single organization is responsible for the lack of implementation of a public health strategy for dealing with gun violence – the National Rifle Association. For over 100 years, the NRA promoted marksmanship, gun safety, wildlife management, and citizenship through responsible gun ownership. That all changed in the 1970s when radical gun rights activists took control of the NRA. The gun rights movement began after the passage of the Gun Control Act of 1968, which required gun dealers to be licensed, prohibited mail order sales, and required firearms to have serial numbers. While this law added little to the Federal Firearms Act of 1938 (which prohibited ownership of automatic weapons), the NRA began to spread the rumor that citizens could lose the right to bear arms.
But the NRA’s power in the last 50 years did not come from the citizens that joined the organization for magazine subscriptions and discounts at corporate sponsors. The NRA’s power comes from Corporate Partnerships, and the leading corporate partners are gun manufacturers. A report in 2013 by the Violence Policy Center found that about 75% of NRA corporate donations came from firearm manufacturers, and eight firearm manufacturers each donated a million dollars or more. Manufacturers dominate the Ring of Freedom (highest donors) and provide most special sponsorship for programs and meetings. While donations from individuals provide the majority of NRA funding (including NRA Political Action Committee funding which cannot be corporate), very few individuals have the influence gained by million-dollar donations. This dominance increased when many non-firearm corporate sponsors abandoned the NRA after the mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida in 2018. The NRA failed to respond with any empathy after the shooting, and when corporate partners withdrew, released this statement:
“Some corporations have decided to punish NRA membership in a shameful display of political and civic cowardice.”
While the NRA argues that they do not lobby on behalf of firearm manufacturers, their actions would suggest otherwise. The NRA lobbied for and secured the passage of federal laws banning the ATF from keeping a searchable registry of guns, gun owners or gun sales in 1986, preventing the CDC from advocating for or promoting “gun control” in 1996, providing immunity from liability for gun manufacturers in 2005, and successfully blocked most gun safety legislation, including universal background checks. The NRA also lobbied to let the assault weapons ban expire in 2004, a ban which had resulted in a 43% reduction in mass killings. Beginning in the 1990s, the NRA convinced 45 states to legislate firearm pre-emption statutes, preventing local governments from creating restrictive firearm ordinances. All of that when, except for the idea of gun registration which has been translated to “disarmament” by the NRA, gun safety legislation is supported by the majority of gun owners in the US. And that includes the 5 million gun owners the NRA says are members of its organization (the number is actually much lower if you consider dues paying members instead of their mailing list which includes all past members – that’s how I got the letter from LaPierre last week). Fortunately, corruption within the NRA may put an end to the influence of firearm manufacturers.
How do you begin to make gun violence a public health priority? The first step would be to identify the priority and quantify the impact. For that first step see the first paragraph above, or read today’s local news. The next step would be to identify contributing factors and immediately address critical contributing factors. In my opinion this would be Federal Firearms Licensure and background checks.
The problem with Federal Firearms Licensure (an FFL) is that almost anyone can become a registered gun dealer with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms. You only need to certify that you can legally possess firearms, that you intend to be in the business of selling firearms, and then pass a fingerprint background check. Once licensed, you can buy and sell as many weapons as you want, for the ridiculously low registration fee of $200 for the first three years and then $90 for each three-year renewal. About 60% of FFLs are held by dealers selling from their home (so-called kitchen table dealers). This was as high as 75% in the late 90s before the registration fee was raised from $30, and the fingerprint background check was added. Still, most kitchen table dealers do not operate a business as required, with about one-third making no sales each year, and one-third failing ATF records inspections. FFL is so easy to obtain that many register just to get wholesale discounts on guns for themselves and their friends, even though this should not be the reason for registration. Then when they fail ATF records inspections, they simply turn in their license and transfer their guns to private ownership. Almost no one is prosecuted for violating the law. Guns sold by kitchen table dealers make up a disproportionate number of guns used illegally. There is an easy solution – raise the license fee to $3000-$5000 and increase the penalties for fraud and non-compliance. In case you think that fee is too high, recognize that it would be about the same as an alcoholic beverage permit.
The other critical contributing factor to gun violence is the lack of a universal background check. With gun violence at the current level in the US, and with so many guns used in crimes obtained illegally, this is a no-brainer.
The next step in implementing a public health priority would be to implement prevention strategies. The American Medical Association provided common sense recommendations for preventing gun violence in a press release in 2016:
Advocate for schools as gun-free zones
Ban the sale of assault-style weapons and high-capacity magazines
Expand domestic violence restraining orders to include dating partners
Remove firearms from high-risk individuals
Increase the legal age of purchasing any firearm or ammunition to 21
End concealed carry reciprocity across state lines
Create gun buyback programs to reduce the number of circulating firearms
I will not even try to argue the stupidity of the universal carry law just passed in Texas. It is obviously stupid. If we had common sense gun safety laws, we would not need any handgun carry laws of any kind.
Does common sense go far enough? It is clear from national and state level data that the rate of death by firearms is directly associated with the rate of firearm possession. And the US has the highest rate of firearm possession of any country by a lot. I would argue that we must change the gun ownership culture in the US if we are going to significantly reduce gun violence. This means registration of all handguns (in addition to banning assault-style rifles and high-capacity magazines). Handguns are only practically useful for killing human beings and should be licensed. Even with universal background checks, you will not significantly reduce the criminal possession and use of handguns without registration – there are already too many handguns out there, and they last forever. This is a small price to pay to keep children safe in schools (not to mention in the back seat of their mother’s car). And for those who would argue that gun registration will allow the federal government to confiscate your guns, you have to decide which is more dangerous to you and your family, the federal government or an armed criminal?
In previous articles I have said that Proposition B would not put an end to homelessness in Austin. It was not intended to do that. It was intended to protect the health and safety of people living in the high-density areas of downtown and the University of Texas, and force the Austin City Council to address the issue of homelessness, rather than perpetuate it. You would think that City Council Members would have understood the message. It was advertised everywhere.
On a Sunday morning news program one day after the election, Mayor Adler said, “If you talk to people on both sides of this proposition it was everybody’s highest priority to get people out of tents, everybody’s, on both sides. And I think that’s right”. OK, we are on the same page. Then one day later, Councilwoman Tovo authored a proposal to create city-authorized encampments. The City Council unanimously passed the proposal on May 6. While the City will probably need to help relocate the homeless population, there was no mention of what else needs to be done to end the crisis. So, people will still live in tents.
Then, also on May 6, the City built a homeless tent camp along the sidewalk in front of the City Hall Plaza. This encampment is in violation of the current city ordinance which prohibits camping on sidewalks as well as the Proposition B ordinance that takes effect May 11. It is a clear expression of contempt for the majority of Austin citizens who voted for Prop. B. If you think that was not intended, look at the signage displayed in the photo above.
If the Austin City Council simply intends to address Proposition B by moving the tent encampments, there is a simple solution. Move the encampments to the following parks:
Tanglewood Neighborhood Park
Walnut Creek Park
Bull Creek District Park
Dick Nichols District Park
Cherry Creek Neighborhood Park
These parks are all larger than 10 acres, so there is plenty of room. Also, there is plenty of room at Emma Long and McKinney Falls. You could even convert nine holes at a couple of the municipal golf courses. Golfers do not need 18 holes to play golf.
The people who live in the neighborhoods near these parks, and who use these parks for family activities would never allow homeless encampments in these locations. So why have residents of the downtown area had to put up with encampments in our parks downtown? If the homeless are not a risk to health and safety, why not share our parks with them all over town?
Kathie Tovo’s proposal and the City Council’s approval to relocate tents would seem like an emergency response to an unexpected outcome in the May 1 election. It should not have been unexpected since the Save Austin Now PAC raised almost ten times the contributions during the pre-election campaign as the opposing PAC, Homes Not Handcuffs. Regardless of the election outcome, the mayor and others on the City Council had acknowledged during the past year that the Action Plan to End Homelessness adopted in 2018 has failed. Not really a surprise as it is an exact copy of failed programs in numerous cities, mostly in California. In addition, the City Manager report from July 2020, found that “the City, ECHO, and their partners can be more effective through stronger coordination, more purposeful investments, and data-driven and collaborative decision-making” (Investing for Results Report Release and P3 Homelessness Task Force Update, July 22, 2020). So, what was the plan if not to provide coordination, purposeful investment, data-driven and collaborative decision-making? City Auditor reports year after year have documented that despite massive funding, service providers have failed to meet about half of their contracted metrics, are not serving the highest-risk populations, provide uncoordinated and ineffective case management, and have not adequately determined the needs of the population they were contracted to serve (Homelessness Assistance Audit Series: Outcomes of City Efforts, February 2019).
The McKinney-Vento Homeless Assistance Act and the Homeless Emergency Assistance and Rapid Transition Amendment of 2009 created a single grant process for organizations to apply for federal funds to provide services and assistance to homeless individuals and families. The Ending Community Homelessness Coalition (ECHO) applied to the Department of Housing and Urban Development in 2009 with the support of Austin and Travis County, and became the lead agency for the HUD Continuum of Care (COC) Program. ECHO created its first plan for ending homelessness in Austin and Travis County in 2010. It has been revised a number of times, clearly without success. City of Austin audits consistently show that ECHO has failed to meet objectives under the Austin/Travis County plans. It is not at all clear who pays for what. ECHO receives grant funding directly from HUD, and is also paid by the City of Austin. The City of Austin also receives federal grants. Money allocated to Austin from the 2020 CARES (Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security) Act went to the homeless service providers and was used to purchase motels. Even the City of Austin Audit Department does not know how much money the City is spending on the homeless.
Clearly, the plans ECHO has created for the City of Austin over the past decade with the goal of ending homelessness have been an abject failure. I would assume that Austin and Travis County can ask HUD to revoke ECHO’s contract as the lead agency for the COC Program. It is time for the City of Austin to get a new partner who can create a new plan for ending homelessness. It is also time for the City of Austin to provide transparency in the spending for the homeless population. More in the next article on what the City of Austin should look for in a HUD COC partner.
In the meantime, the Austin City Council should enforce Proposition B as an ordinance lawfully created by the citizens of Austin.
Waterloo to Austin 